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I find it a bit baffling that anyone doubts that Greece will default. I think they are not asking themselves the simple question: with what, exactly, will Greece service its debts? 

Normally, when a country borrows, it is to invest in assets that eventually produce a stream of income or which increase economic efficiency. But that's not what Greece did. They went in for buying submarines, fighter planes and frigates. This is very different from the UK buying arms; we *make* submarines, fighter planes and frigates, we even export them, but Greece was borrowing money to buy arms made elsewhere, which impacted both their fiscal and trade deficits at the same time.

And what revenue stream or increase in economic efficiency does a submarine get you? What will you do with it? Give rides to tourists? Just how will you generate the income to service the debt, especially when your Central Bank has just announced that your economy is set to contract by another 4%, meaning increased unemployment, social spending, and reduced tax revenues.

This isn't a question of ideology or of disliking Europe; it's simple arithmetic. Greece does not have the money to service its debt, its deficit is creeping upwards towards 15% of GDP and its debt is projected to rise to 150% of GDP.

There are only two outcomes here. One is that someone else pays Greece's debt and then moves in and takes control of Greek finances. The other outcome is that Greece defaults on its debt and stiffs the mainly French and German Banks that hold it, and then leaves the Euro to regain lost competitiveness. I don't see a third way, and the longer they leave it, the worse the final crisis will be.