Παρασκευή, Απριλίου 22, 2011

Ποσο ρεζιλι ακομα θα γινεις κυριε Παπακωσταντινου?


Greece vs Citigroup


We have a name! Greece didn’t identify the bank they’reinvestigating for allegedly spreading rumours that it will restructure debt this weekend. (Which was a daft conjecture indeed.)
The Guardian has just identified which bank:
The US investment bank Citigroup is at the centre of an investigation by the Greek authorities into rumours that the debt-laden nation was preparing a restructuring of its debt over the Easter weekend.
Citigroup is insisting it has done nothing wrong after it emerged that an email from one of its traders prompted the inquiry… ”We are co-operating with the authorities and do not consider there to have been any wrongdoing by Citi or its employees,” the bank said.
Also, via Reuters:
The email, the content of which was forwarded to Reuters, cites “increased noise” over a Greek debt restructuring “as early as this Easter weekend”, and notes how spreads in the bond market were widening.
(Where did the noise come from then?)
Slightly odd coincidence here.
To remind readers — here is a research note that Citi analysts dispatched on Wednesday (we’ve already covered much of it):
40% Likely Haircut… — The Greek government has a number of tools at its disposal such as: more austerity; debt maturity extension; lower interest rates; asset sales; and an outright haircut. We believe that the best combination to achieve a sustainable Debt/GDP is through a combination of measures and a 40% haircut.
…the Sooner, the Better — Once debtholders fully realise that Greece cannot escape a haircut, they should accelerate “the event” as soon as possible. Leaving the haircut for the future means a larger haircut for the same reduction in Debt/GDP.
Of course ‘as soon as possible’ is not ‘this weekend’ and ‘should’ does not mean ‘will’. But err, the idea that Greece imminently should restructure is not exactly new. At all. It’s been going on throughout the last year or so.
But it looks like the investigation will press on.
Because it’s not like the Greek finance ministry is wasting their time here.
Oh no. This is very important.
Because it’s really worth concentrating on a single email versus Greece’s $430bn of outstanding – sinking, toxic – debt.

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